TGS


The 2026 National Reference Test: rising attainment in maths and what this means for grades

The 2026 National Reference Test (NRT) results are out today. They show a long-term trend of slightly improved attainment in GCSE maths, but not in English language. So, to ensure that standards are maintained, we told exam boards to take the results of the NRT into account when setting some grade boundaries in GCSE maths.

What is the National Reference Test?

Every February and March, a sample of year 11 students at more than 330 schools in England sit a short test featuring similar-style questions to those set in GCSE English language and maths exams.

The tests have been running since 2017, when the current GCSE specifications were first examined. That year serves as the benchmark for making comparisons over time.

As it is a consistent test sat each year, it is a highly reliable measure of whether overall attainment in these subjects is going up, down, or staying the same. Where there are genuine changes in the level of attainment over time, the NRT enables us to see it. This extra evidence helps us to maintain standards and ensure that outcomes in GCSE English language and maths reflect any trends in student attainment.

What has the NRT shown and what has Ofqual done? Maths

The NRT has shown a small rise in attainment in maths at grade 7 in recent years. The trend is now clear and sustained against the 2017 benchmark. It is highly likely that this improvement is also present across the higher grade range. That change is a genuine improvement in what students know, understand and can do.

On this basis we instructed exam boards to reflect this evidence of improvement in their setting of grade boundaries, in the upper grade range. It means those grade boundaries are lower than they otherwise would have been.

English language

In English language, it’s a different picture. Results at grade 7 are not statistically significantly different to 2017. At grade 4, there is an indication that attainment has fallen since 2017. However there has not yet been a consistent enough trend over time to justify any action this year, given the cautious way in which we use evidence from the NRT. As usual we will be looking closely at this again next year, in light of the 2027 NRT results.

What does this mean for students and schools?

The impact on today’s GCSE maths results is a small increase in the number of students achieving higher grades. At grade 4 results are stable as attainment is stable.

Results in English language are stable, with any variation being normal fluctuations we see each year in the proportions of students achieving each grade.

The main takeaway is that the NRT has enabled us to ensure that standards are maintained and rising attainment in GCSE maths has been reflected in students’ results.

You can find more detail about the NRT results in our 2026 NRT annual statement. And for all the data, there’s the National Foundation for Educational Research’s full report.

Michelle Meadows, Chief Standards Adviser, Ofqual

 

https://ofqual.blog.gov.uk/2026/08/20/the-2026-national-reference-test-rising-attainment-in-maths-and-what-this-means-for-grades/

seen at 10:41, 20 August in The Ofqual blog.